Oregon has a specific challenge. They have to punish that strategy by executing better, particularly in the passing game. Oregon's receivers have to beat one-on-one matchups downfield. The Ducks' offensive line has to block better and protect the quarterback. Darron Thomas has to take advantage of the defense's overcommitment to the run and deliver the ball.
The job gets a little harder with Lavasier Tuinei out. He'd emerged as a good second target after Jeff Maehl, a tall, physical receiver who ran hard after the catch. Tuinei's out until at least the bowl game with a shoulder injury, arm in a sling at practice, not in uniform. That means Josh Huff starts, which isn't all bad. True freshman Huff has been dynamic in spot duty this year, 16 catches for 276 yards and 3 touchdowns, a healthy 17.3-yard average. He's also ran the football 7 times for 90 yards and a score, 12.9 yards per carry. Huff will play capably, but depth behind him is a concern. Receivers 5,6, and 7 in the Oregon rotation have seven catches between them and haven't shown much. The hardest thing to replace will be Tuinei's downfield blocking. Watch any of the season highlights for Oregon's offense, and you'll see Tuinei throwing a key block and sometimes two.
The Ducks are a 19.5-point favorite in the game but that number is skewed. Arizona is coming off a couple of tough losses to Stanford and USC. They've looked a little ragged lately, but after a bye week, they'll be rested and motivated for Oregon, eager to pay the Ducks back for last year's double overtime loss that knocked them out of the Rose Bowl.
They are talented on defense. Bookend defensive line stalwarts Brooks Reed and Ricky Elmore are the anchors for a group that is 12th in the nation in scoring defense and first in the conference against the run, holding opponents to 112 yards a game rushing. Elmore has 8 sacks and Reed 5.5, and they're athletic, quick defensive ends who will not only pressure the quarterback but hold their ground against Oregon's bread-and-butter zone read plays. Number 41, linebacker Paul Vassalo leads all tacklers on the roster with 80 total. He's a junior, a JC transfer from Sierra College who has stepped in and made an immediate impact. Redshirt freshman Justin Washington, #43, a 6-2, 275 defensive tackle, has contributed 35 tackles and four sacks inside.
If the Wildcats can be had, it's through the air. Their pass defense ranks 52nd in the country. They gave up 299 yards and two touchdowns to Andrew Luck, and 393 yards and two scores to Oregon State's Ryan Katz earlier this year.
Oregon can get the offense back on track against the Wildcats, but to do so they have to be able to pass the football. They have to effective through the air, and get that seventh man out of the box, or make him wish he'd stayed home in the deep middle.
It seems the last couple games Thomas has regressed in the passing game and reverted to his habit of overthrowing receivers.
ReplyDeleteThey also need to work on the hand-offs. Those seem to take too long and are resulting in lost yards and turnovers. Arizona is much better than Cal, and they have the weapons to take advantage of Oregon's recent sloppy play.
I've thought all year that Oregon had 2-3 potential losses on its schedule. They've overcome two of them. This is #3 on my list (Stanford and USC being the other two). Glad it's at Autzen.
Martin--
ReplyDeleteDucks definitely need a productive game from Thomas, and to clean up the negative plays. Playing at Autzen is always a huge benefit.