In the meantime the Ducks have a game to play, so here's a statistical breakdown to contemplate before a tryptophan-induced stupor renders all calculation impossible. Let's start with this staggering nugget: the average person consumes 4,000 calories at the Thanksgiving Feast. A 200-lb man would have to run two-thirds of the distance between Eugene and Corvallis to break even. Best not to break it down so starkly. Here's the truth: with only thirteen football games in a year, we need other comforts. Life is hard and unforgiving. One day a year ought to be reserved for unlimited stuffing and pumpkin pie. We can burn off some of the calories yelling our lungs out, and Friday should give us plenty of reasons.
By game eleven the numbers and the trends are more reliable. Everybody's played a couple of tough games and two or three that are the football equivalent of mashed potatoes and gravy. Everyone's had injuries and moments of invincibility. Sophomore sensations have come down to earth. Notorious slow starters have found their pace. Numbers don't lie, but they're less likely to make misleading promises after ten games, when everybody has had time to find their level. Here are four reasons Oregon clinches a second consecutive conference championship and the Rose Bowl on Friday night:
Arizona isn't a high-output operation.
The Wildcats average 29.9 points a game, fifth in the conference. Oregon averages 50.7, tops in the country. The Cal blueprint is a one-time statistical anomaly; Arizona can't score the way Oregon does, and hasn't. Other than their opening wins over Toledo and The Citadel, they've only scored more than 30 points twice, both at home, rallying to make 34 late against 7-4 Iowa, a victory that looked way more impressive in September than it does now, and rolling to a 44-14 win over Washington in game 7. In their last two games, against Stanford and USC, they've managed 17 and 21 points, losing both.
Oregon can trade touchdowns for field goals.
Arizona isn't a big-play team, and their ball control horizontal passing attack struggles in the red zone, with a red zone success rate of 73.3% for the season, compared 84.3% for the Ducks. Oregon radio analyst Mike Jorgensen pointed out on Oregon Football with Chip Kelly that inside the 20, linebackers, cornerbacks and safeties have less ground to cover, and those windows and seams get squeezed. Arizona has trouble punching it in. For the year they've scored 38 touchdowns against 10 field goals, compared to 67 tds and 11 field goals for the Ducks. Oregon gets to the red zone more often, and scores six more often when they do. LaMichael James' quickness has been a devastating weapon, particularly inside the ten.
It will be cold and wet Friday night at Autzen, and the Ducks run the football much better.
Home field advantage grows even more significant in miserable conditions. The Ducks will be buoyed by a wall of energy and sound. Being able to pound the visitors into submission with the ground attack becomes a potent weapon in the cold and wet. For the season, Oregon has rushed for 2929 yards. Arizona has less than half as many, 1439, and 19 rushing touchdowns to 35 for the Ducks. If it becomes a ground war under the lights in the last week of November, the Ducks have a significant edge.
Oregon holds significant advantages in turnovers and special teams.
Arizona gives the ball away nearly as often as they take it, ranking 47th in the country in turnover margin at .1 per game. Oregon ranks 5th in the country, a full turnover better at 1.1 per game. The Ducks have intercepted 15 passes this season, returning two for touchdowns, and they have five td returns on special teams. The Ducks are faster and more opportunistic.
Arizona's best chance to win: get to Darron Thomas, sustain drives.
The Wildcats want a low-scoring game, and their best chance to create one is to disrupt the tempo of Oregon's offense with pressure, particularly from defensive ends Brooks Reed and Ricky Elmore and defensive tackle Justin Washington. Thomas looked out of synch versus California. If these three can defeat Oregon's line blocking and keep DT from finding his rhythm, they'll be able to protect a suspect secondary. Meanwhile, Arizona's precise, ball-control passing attack has the potential to chew the clock and keep the defense from wearing down in the second half.
If the Mike Stoops antic road show can get a lead early and frustrate the Ducks, they may be able to turn it in to the kind of game they can win. If Oregon is able to execute and return to their normal offensive rhythm, all the screaming and headset-tossing in the world won't make a difference. They can take the California blueprint and roll it up into a wet soggy ball, sending the seniors out as the most successful class in school history.
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