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Sunday, November 7, 2010

The Redshirt Has to Come Off, and Should Have Come Off the Last Two Series of this Game

Nate Costa is done. There's no official word yet, but when a player who's had three reconstructive knee surgeries leaves the field on crutches, the outlook is grim. It's hard to think he'll take another snap, and that is a shame. You won't find a better team player or a more quality young man than Nate. He has courage and class, and he is a great Duck who contributed in dozens of little ways, and some not so little.

It's bitterly ironic that a guy who saved Oregon's season with a deft hold on a placement kick last year would end his season on a mishandled one on Saturday. Rolling right after scooping up a snap that went through his hands (after handling over a 100 in his Oregon career flawlessly) he struggled to break free of a Washington defender and tried get off a pass downfield to save the play. The defender rode him out bounds and rolled over the knee, the crucial contact occurring about two yards of of bounds.

Costa's best play in that situation, outside the tackle box with a big lead, was probably to throw it out of bounds, but he struggled to get a pass off and it cost him the rest of the season. But that was Nate, competing every chance he got. There's a risk of injury on any football play, and he played hard and well in his relief role all season, taking over in the Washington State game when Darron Thomas suffered a dinged-up shoulder in the second quarter.

With Costa on the sideline, the Ducks had the luxury of knowing they had a second quarterback who could win out if something happened like 2007. Costa knew the offense, had maturity and leadership skills, and he had the full confidence of his teammates. Thomas has been stellar this season, quickly developing into a star, the next in a line of great Oregon quarterbacks, but the Ducks didn't lose much when they went to the bench. Costa could operate the offense, capably. The coaches, players and fans all knew he could win games, and both the quarterbacks grew through an intense competition in fall camp. The pressure of that competition readied Thomas for a special season, and Costa has to get a lot of credit both for pushing him, and handling the situation with tremendous composure once a decision was made. And it had to be a close decision, because both of them have played very well this year and shown leadership and character.

But now Nate can't play, and there is no waiver wire in college football. Losing a player like Nate is a huge blow. The Ducks are three games from the national championship, and for those of us who are prone to panic, this looks a little like 2007 or 2005. Only this time the number one guy is still healthy. But all that is behind him now is a redshirt freshman with a handful of snaps, and a true freshman with a world of promise, currently slated to redshirt.

Brian Bennett is the number two quarterback. He has to be. He's the most talented, the best passer, and has the biggest upside of the remaining candidates. That's no knock on Daryle Hawkins, who as a redshirt freshman has shown versatility and athleticism in spot duty, and may challenge to replace LT or Drew Davis in the starting lineup at receiver next year. But Bennett has the arm and the athletic ability to be the next (after Thomas) in the line of great Oregon quarterbacks.

He isn't ready. He's a year or two away from really mastering the offense, but he has the best tools of any of the remaining backup quarterbacks. Running the scout team doesn't prepare you for the Civil War or the national title game, but he has the best chance of getting the job done, relying on his supporting cast, a great coaching staff and innate ability. He's far more capable than Roper was in 2007, has a great makeup, good work habits, and the confidence to compete.

The red shirt is out the window. Shots at the national championship come along once every ten years, or in a narrow window of seasons, for some schools once every twenty. He should have taken snaps in this game. It's the cold-blooded reality of college football. There is no waiver wire, and he should be taking as many live game snaps as is practical any time they are available. Because right now if Darron were to go down or even be shaken up, he's the man. He has to be.

Brian Bennett has been in this situation before. As a sophomore at Crespi High he had to take over when the starter went down with a knee injury in the season's first game. The starter was blue-chip recruit Kevin Prince. Bennett led the team to the state championship game, and threw for 2133 yards and 17 tds. High school isn't the BCS championship, but the experience is the same. He had to be thrown in before his time, and he responded with poise. That experience is something he can draw on in this one.

Because on Monday he has to prepare for the reality of taking snaps against Cal, Arizona and Oregon State, and possibly in NCAA Championship Game. As of right now, he's next in line on the number one team in the country.

11 comments:

  1. From what I saw the injury happened right before he went out of bounds. It was another non contact injury. It looked as if the knee just gave out. I guess the Ducks were lucky that it took this long to happen. If I remember right his last knee injury was non contact. I think Hawkins is better than you think. Last year it was Hawkins that people were talking about when he was running the scout team in practice. If the Ducks need a qb to come in and milk the clock, Hawkins should be able to do that just fine. If Thomas gets hurt then they will have some issues. I do agree that Bennett has more upside and should be the next starter when DT is done. For right now I don't see CK burning the redshirt unless DT is hurt in a close game.

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  2. Andy--

    Appreciate your comment. You may very well be right about the cause and timing of the injury. I haven't watched it back yet. Made me sick to see Costa hurt.

    Hawkins is a fine player with plenty of athletic ability. But my thinking is, they're three games from the national championship now. The redshirt has to be burned, because Bennett's the best quarterback on the bench, may have to play, and must get some live snaps before he has to start a game.

    I think Thomas is a very tough and durable starter, and it's very likely he can finish the season without incident and all this speculation becomes moot. But my main point is, with an opportunity to go 12-0 right now, you don't save a kid for two years from now.

    But your take is very well reasoned, and I appreciate you taking the time to write in.

    Dale

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  3. Dale,

    Agree with your reasoning. Bennett should get all the live snaps we can afford in the coming games. It is "worse case scenario" planning .. good for war and football.

    I have always been a big Costa supporter. This fall camp, I switched as I considered which of the two Qbs would be less likely to go down with injury. That position is essential to this offense and we have seen how a late season injury can derail the offense. Just seemed with his history that Nate was the greater risk.

    Mr. Costa will always be a favorite of Duck fans for his character, his play and his tenacity. Stories will be told of how he never quit through all his troubles. He will stand as the measure of perseverance to future generations.

    Thanks for your excellent blog.

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  4. Dale, I'm going to make a rare disagreement with you here.

    I do not want to see the redshirt come off unless Thomas gets severely injured.

    I think our #3 non redshirt QB can get the job done. Why? Because we have the best running back tandem in the nation. We'll run more and use different sets. That will force defenses to put 7 or 8 players in the box and then passes become easy as the zone defenses will have huge holes in them. A play action will create havoc.

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  5. So what happens next? Assuming that the Ducks win the Pac-10, is there a game other than the Rose Bowl that they will play in?

    -Doug Evans
    Class of 1998

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  6. I agree it looked like Nate's injury was "non-contact". He was trying to decelerate as he was out of bounds with a player on his back and the knee appeared to collapse on him. But, I haven't seen it on replay either. Also, I absolutely do not think that Bennett's red shirt should have been burned yesterday. At the time, the coaches had little info on Nate's injury (aside from the trainer's assessment, which probably wasn't very good admittedly).

    After we get official word of Nate's season being over (hopefully, that's not the case), then I believe Bennett's redshirt will be history. We will need him to be game ready.

    Absolutely love your blog, Dale.

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  7. Can anyone imagine what 08 would have been like if we had an extra year of a recovered and more experienced Dennis Dixon? a few years prior we had burned his Red Shirt to give him a few worthless snaps at the end of a game in which we were oon cruise control. Bennett is that same kind of talent and if we can get by with Hawkins you DO SO. ***unless Darron Thomas is out for the entire BCS natty champ game*** thats when we should go to a 2 qb system and split start them against a team like Boise or Auburn. you HAVE to think of the future, especially with CK's system and guys like Lache Seastrunk sitting in the shaddows. With our next few seasons schedules we are in BETTER shape to get to another BCS title game. You take a big test like LSU next season and you Bust out Bennett and Seastrunk as the 1b options at QB and RB. (and they'd be FRESHMAN?) we're NASTY! and built for the future.

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  8. Anon--

    Thanks fellas for your comments, and your support of The Duck Stops Here.

    In football and other forms of combat, coaches have to make snap decisions all the time. Chip Kelly is a tremendous decision-maker, and it's his team. My thinking was, the minute you know Nate is done, Bennett has to be prepped and coached as the number two quarterback. There were two possessions Saturday when the game was out of reach, and Bennett should have gone in.

    I try to write the blog with a point of view, and I'm prepared to be wrong. Several of you (BP, Andy, Dave) might be right that Costa's injury was non-contact, or just prior to the tackle, but either way, as Anon reiterates, it's a shame. Nate Costa is a player Duck fans love and appreciate very deeply, and he'll get a loud, long, warm ovation on Senior Day.

    Doug,

    I think you must be joking, poking fun at the hype and hoopla buzzing around this season. But to clarify for anyone who's just tuned in, the Ducks are 9-0 with three games to play in the regular season. They are a consensus number one in the polls, including (probably) the BCS. This week's BCS poll gets unveiled tonight.

    If the Ducks win out, they will play in the BCS National Championship in Glendale. If they win their next two, or two of their next three, they are repeat conference champions and headed to the Rose Bowl. Their last three games are at Cal, home versus Arizona, and at OSU.

    Either result, Rose Bowl or Glendale, would have been considered a fabulous outcome at the beginning of the season, coming in with an untested quarterback and questions at defensive back and the defensive line.

    Thanks again guys and enjoy your Sunday.

    Dale

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  9. Reis,

    Many people would agree with you, that you have to think of the future. Jeremiah Johnson is a player I remember the Ducks burning a year on needlessly.

    In this specific situation, I think the coaches have to do everything possible to win the first football national championship in school history. The future has to take a back seat.

    But either way this is a great ride, isn't it?

    Dale

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  10. Hi Dale,

    I usually agree wholeheartedly with your posts, but in this case I have to disagree. Yes, you are correct that a chance at a National Championship chance comes along only rarely (And "Every 10 years"? I WISH... More like twice in the past 100+ years. But I do hope the trend continues and the Ducks can be in the national picture every year.) And who knows, maybe another QB recruit comes in and performs better than BB and earns the job in the next couple of years... Like Jerrard Randall for instance.

    That said, right now from everything I've heard, yes Brian Bennett is the most talented QB left behind Darron Thomas. Does that mean you burn his redshirt year on the off chance that DT will be injured and can't play? I honestly don't think so. If it does turn out to be the case that DT can't go, yes it would have been very helpful to have given Bennett some live game snaps in the final 3 games of the season... But what if it doesn't become necessary? Then we've burned a year of his eligibility. And for what? For some mop up duty and insurance? I know we want to do what's best for the team but to me this is too high a price to pay for both Brian and the future team.

    So, I think we wait and see what the prognosis is for Nate Costa (Although I'm not exactly hopeful, given his history... But it is on his right knee this time so maybe there's a chance..) and run Bennett and Hawkins with the 2's in practice and plan on Darryle being our guy if the worst happens. Of course I pray it doesn't.

    Best case? Ducks win the National Championship with Darron at the helm. Go Ducks !!!

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  11. Gd58--

    Most of those commenting, here and elsewhere, agree with you that Bennett's redshirt status be preserved at all costs, with an eye to the future.

    I understand that point of view. It's certainly the ideal situation given the fact that Thomas is a sophomore and Bennett a freshman.

    But life and football are not a series of ideal situations. Often we have to prepare for the worst, and choose the most desirable from a series of unpleasant options.

    Bennett is number two in practice, certainly. And he doesn't use a year of eligibility until he gets in a game.

    My thinking is, this is the Duck's most serious opportunity for a national championship ever. It's the third time they've come close in ten years, 2001 and 2007, and if they succeeded it would be the first title in 115 years of Oregon football.

    I say you roll the dice, now. If getting Bennett ready to play this season helps you win this title, he plays, now. You can sign a JC guy to backup in 2011 and redshirt him next year, like Thomas did as a sophomore after being forced into the Boise State game as a freshmen.

    Since there's a possibility he may be needed this season, you have to get him ready. Every live snap he can get before the fateful moment he has to take over increases his chances of success if Darron goes down.

    He's number two, because Costa's football career is over. They haven't announced it yet, but I'm almost certain that's the case. I hope I'm wrong. It wouldn't be the first time. But if I'm right, Bennett is number two, and they should play him now, because they are three games from the national title.

    It's certainly a compelling topic, and it's generated some well-reasoned disagreement, which I invite.

    Ultimately Chip Kelly makes this decision, and he has a tremendous track record as Oregon's decision maker. It will be interesting to see how he manages this difficult dilemma.

    My answer would be to play Bennett now, and sign a JC guy to play Costa's role next season, redshirt Bennett and Randall in 2011. But we'll see.

    Thanks for your support of the blog and your contributions.

    Dale

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