Used to be a Duck fan wouldn't pay much attention to the national scene, but Oregon has a national profile now, and every game involving a PAC-10 team or a nationally-ranked team has Duck implications. Here are some notes from opening night.
USC 49 Hawaii 36
Defensive geniuses Monte Kiffin and Ed Orgeron were supposed to shape all those highly-touted Trojan studs into a dominating defensive machine but that wasn't in evidence last night. USC gave up 36 points and 588 yards to WAC also-ran Hawaii, exposing some glaring weaknesses in the back seven. Think Nick Foles, Andrew Luck, and Kevin Riley aren't licking their chops thinking about their chance to shred the SC secondary?
The Trojans won, sure, but it wasn't supposed to be a shootout. Matt Barkley is the kind of quarterback who looks like a world-beater when he can sit back without pressure. He'll roll up big numbers in their first four games, all cream puffs: Hawaii, Virginia in the Coliseum, at Minnesota, at Washington State. Then the schedule ramps up with PAC-10 play: hosting Washington, at Stanford, Cal at the Coliseum, a bye week (everybody has a bye the week before Oregon) then home versus the Ducks.
Barkley will make a lot of early season Heisman lists with gaudy numbers, but he's the typical pampered Trojan quarterback, used to a built-in advantage and ready-made glory, operating behind the comfort of a huge offensive line with a stable of five-star tailbacks to hand off to. Things won't be so cushy this season. He'll be pressured. The line is not as deep, and the defense won't afford him the luxury of coasting on a big lead every week. Oregon will bring pressure, and he's not used to that.
Ronald Johnson looks like an emerging star. He had a huge night, with three touchdown catches and an 89-yard punt return. The Rainbows didn't tackle well and looked smallish lining up against SC.
The Trojans will start fast with that schedule. The ESPN guys will be raving about Lane Kiffin and the rediscovered swagger in Los Angeles, but October and November look to be a different story. After a couple of back-to-reality losses in PAC-10 play USC will have nothing to play for and Kiffin will lose this team. Implosion is likely. A thirteen-point win versus Hawaii is not an accomplishment, not for a team that used to win forever. Those days are gone. They've lost their cheating advantage, and their mystique. Matt Barkley, meet Josh Kaddu. Crunch!
Ohio State 45, Marshall 7
This is a typical Ohio State early season game. Like most top-twenty teams they fatten up on Youngstown State-variety competition in the early going. The Big Ten plays an eight-game conference schedule, so the Buckeyes have four home games in September, never leaving the comfort of the Horseshoe until an October 2 date with Illinois. They have this game with Marshall, Ohio and Eastern Michigan, wrapped around a September 11th home game with number-13 Miami.
Every time I see Terrelle Pryor in the highlight package he's soft tossing another zipless flutterball to a wide open receiver with 4.4 speed, or handing off to Brandon Saine going untouched to the end zone for 45. The Buckeyes will be favored in all twelve of their games this season, and have the easiest route of any of the contenders for a date in Glendale. Pryor will get lots of credit he doesn't really deserve. His passing mechanics are woeful.
He had a great game against the Ducks in the Rose Bowl, largely because the Duck defense gave him too many second chances, failing to tackle or properly contest those flutterballs. Casey Matthews dropped a sure interception early in the game. Pryor is a mediocre quarterback. He thrives in a system that keeps him under wraps and protects him with a favorable schedule and a stout defense and a coaching philosophy that takes the air out of the ball. Ohio State stands a good chance of making it to the title game then losing it to a team with equal speed and more aggressiveness, a team that has been tested and challenged during the season. Like Oregon, maybe? We'll see.
Utah 27, no. 15 Pittsburgh 24 (OT)
I don't much like the chicanery of freezing the kicker with a time out just before the snap. The Panther kicker had to endure three chances at a game-tying field goal at the end of the game, a make (negated by a timeout called milliseconds before the snap), a miss (negated by another timeout) and a make (psyche!--no timeout called). I don't think a sixty minute football game should come down to a game of flinchies. Call the timeout, yes, but the rule should be adapted so that the coach has to call it within a certain time frame or prior to the cadence. Feel free to disagree.
Pitt took a big risk scheduling a competent intersectional opponent in the opening week like this, and they'll be rewarded with a free fall from the national rankings. It's a shame, really. The BCS beauty pageant rewards teams for fattening up on directionals, the WAC and Conference USA, and punishes real competition.
Miami opened with Florida A&M and won 45-0. That ain't working. That's the way you do it. Play the guitar on the BCS. Apologies to Mark Knopfler. But no apologies to the current landscape of big-time college football, which rewards teams for avoiding risks. You might say, what about the Ducks, but both the New Mexico and Tennessee games looked far more formidable when they were scheduled. New Mexico was a bowl team five times in seven years under Rocky Long. Tennessee is one of the traditional powers of college football, since fallen on hard times. Oregon's third game, now a potential laugher against FBS cupcake Portland State, was supposed to be Central Michigan, the MAC champions last year, but the Chippewas asked out.
For the Utes, last night's victory was a springboard to a promising season. They start league play in the Mountain West September 11th with a home date versus UNLV, a road game versus the New Mexico Lobos (whom the Ducks will test tomorrow afternoon) and then home versus San Jose State. They're likely to be 4-0 and ranked by the end of September. New quarterback Jordan Wynn looks comfortable in the pocket, and he has sturdy running back Matt Asiata (5'11", 220 pounds) to hand off to. The challenges come later in the year for Utah. In November they have TCU, Notre Dame and Brigham Young on the schedule, the ND game in the shadow of Touchdown Jesus and the golden dome. To get serious consideration for a top-15 ranking Utah has to win at least two of these three pivotal games and sweep the rest of the Mountain West schedule. By beating Pitt they cleared a huge hurdle.
There are too many machinations in college football, too many unnecessary intricacies. It's not just a matter of who beat who, unfortunately. Too much of success in the BCS race comes down to who avoided playing anybody, thus minimizing their risk. There are multiple long term shakeouts afoot, with BYU making a move to go independent and whispers USC or Texas might do so. Utah and Colorado are moving west, though Colorado's defection from the Big Twelve is being delayed.
When it all sorts out and the TV deals are struck, here's hoping what emerges is an alignment that fosters true competition on the field. I envision a 64-team superconference that encompasses all of college football's top teams, split into eight eight-team divisions where true round robins are played, with schedules that feature interesting intersectional matchups in September and genuine competition throughout the country and throughout the year. But that will probably never happen. The current system generates too much money and too much interest, and sweeping reforms make too much sense.
The built-in inequities of East Coast bias and creampuff scheduling make the national race no more than a passing curiosity for Duck fans. It's hard to be excited by the convoluted road map to Glendale. Too much of earning a ticket there has nothing to do with play on the field. Oregon fans have learned to love the purity of the PAC-10 race, where everybody plays everybody and a true champion is crowned. The national stuff is just for conversation.
Besides, this week the Ducks are in the Super Bowl. They play the New Mexico Lobos in the championship of winning the day.
The only comment I have is the Utah/Pitt game.
ReplyDeleteUtah has a habit of playing big at home and Pitt a habit of under performing. This was a train wreck waiting to happen. Utah will be a good addition to the PAC-10 (although I'm opposed to expansion).