Spearheaded by Steve Greatwood's masterful coaching of the offensive line and a series of standout running backs, Oregon's running game has produced about 3,000 yards the last three seasons in a row. Last week they steamrolled New Mexico for 369 yards on the ground, with two backs going over the century mark, Kenjon Barner with 147 and four scores and The Gentleman Remene Alston rumbling for 110.
You'd think John Hunt, one of the Oregonian's beat writers, who has covered Duck football for several years, would be inspired or instructed by that kind of consistency, but so far it hasn't rubbed off.
In his preseason article he picked the Ducks to go 8-4 this season, but a week later he ranks them seventh in the country.
The reader has to ask, are the Ducks a mediocre team destined to lose four games, or the seventh best team in the nation? Clearly they can't be both.
The Tennessee game should provide some significant clues. If they bring the same effort and execution to a challenging road environment, the Ducks may be for real.
If Thran, Kaiser, Jordan, Asper and York continue to prove themselves to be the best, most consistent offensive line unit in the country, number seven may turn out to be too modest of a ranking.
And John Hunt would be wrong twice.
"In his preseason article he picked the Ducks to go 8-4 this season, but a week later he ranks them seventh in the country."
ReplyDeleteI appreciate what your saying here, but it's flawed logic and you're not the only blogger I've seen do this, thus prompting this response. Is Hunt supposed to keep Oregon out of the TOP 25 because his prediction for the season is a mediocre 8-4? Since when are the pollsters supposed to rank teams on what they expect their record to be at the end of the season rather than they way they are playing NOW? The rankings are supposed to reflect the CURRENT state of the team, right? And his 8-4 prediction was for the end of the season. So it seems to me, one game in, Hunt's ranking of the ducks CURRENTLY is about right and the end-of-season predictions need to be kept separate from the weekly polls. Love your blog,
Chris
Chris--
ReplyDeleteThanks for weighing in, and I appreciate your breakdown of "poll logic" which isn't always 100% logical.
I understand what you're saying, and I'll confess: taking on Hunt and Goe and Canzano once in a while is a good way to build readership. I'm not above being contentious to get attention. Howard Cosell made a career of it, as have others.
Still, I think I had a point. If Hunt saw Oregon as an 8-4 team as recently as last week, he can't leapfrog them to number seven based on one game against a lousy team.
I think he is glaringly, authentically and genuinely wrong in his first assessment and somewhat closer in his second.
We'll all have a better assessment in five days.
Always appreciate well-reasoned comments like yours.
Dale
Yeah Hunt has taken a lot of flack, from both Duck fans and Beaver fans (which probably shows he's doing a good job.) Beaver fans are pissed because he dropped them out of the poll for losing to his #2 team. Duck fans are pissed because he predicted an 8-4 season.
ReplyDeleteI think Chris's analysis is spot on. Ranking them 7th seems about right based on who Oregon has returning this year plus how they played in game 1 while other top teams struggled. However making a prediction of 8-4 on the season isn't all that far fetched. As good as Oregon was last year they could have easily been 8-4. As you stated we will know a lot more about this team after Saturday.
Personally I stick to taking on Clownzano, it's so much easier.
As an avid Trailblazer fan, I have been astonished at the sophomoric quality of writing in the Oregonian.
ReplyDeleteThere's the Great Liar (Canzano), the Peeping Tom (Quick), and a host of court jesters after those two.
Not that they can't occasionally write a good piece, but day in and day out they are just poor writers.
As a hobby, I also read sports in a large number of other cities, and The Oregonian really stands out for stinking writing. Oh yeah, our sports radio shows leave a lot to be desired as well.
Read the AP voting guidelines sometime. Below is a snippet ripped from Jon Wilner. It seems to me that Hunt has been very consistent for the last few years.
ReplyDeleteThe Ducks beat the stuffing out of a very, very bad team. That's their whole body of work. Where would you rank them using the below guidelines? Certainly not ahead of BSU or TCU, who beat quality opponents? Hunt may pick the team to go 8-4, but if after 1 week of play they look like the number 7 team in the country, then that's where he should rank them.
Hunt's juggling his jobs as an AP voter and a guy who writes for a newspaper.
Some voting guidelines:
* Base your vote on performance, not reputation or preseason speculation.
* Avoid regional bias, for or against. Your local team does not deserve any special handling when it comes to your ballot.
* Pay attention to head-to-head results and
* Don’t hesitate to make significant changes in your ballot from week to week. There’s no rule against jumping the 16th-ranked team over the eighth-ranked team, if No. 16 is coming off a big victory and No. 8 just lost 52-6 to a so-so team.
* Teams on NCAA probation ARE eligible for the AP poll.
Waterfowl--
ReplyDeleteThat's a very good post, informative and well-reasoned.
I don't really argue much with Hunt ranking the Ducks 7th. That's probably where they belong at this stage. But I think his preseason prediction was unduly pessimistic, given the track record of this coach in developing quarterbacks, and the speed, depth and talent everywhere else. Oregon is the well-deserved favorite to repeat as PAC-10 champions, and the reporter knows this. He also knows his ink will get more visits if he rachets down the outlook.
And I know my scribbling at the kitchen table stands a better chance of getting noticed if I pick a quibble with one of the big boys.
Enjoy the season, and thank you for reading and commenting.
Dale
Fair enough. I tend to believe that Hunt picked them where he did based on his perceptions of the team's strengths and weaknesses, not out of some base desire to up hits for the O Live website. Reasonable people can disagree, however, and I appreciate your commentary.
ReplyDeleteRegardless, none of our opinions matter. This team's got to prove it on the field, and I think they'll do that this year. There was a lot to like about fall camp and opener. We'll all know a lot more about the team this Saturday night.
Cheers,
-Brett
Brett--
ReplyDeleteGreat discussion, and your last point is the most significant. Our opinions are for amusement purposes only. The game is the thing, and what unfolds on Saturday will tell us how truly ready they are to become a great team. If Chip holds their attention and they prepare correctly, they have a chance to have a special season.
Dale